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Hypermedia Online Publishing: the Transformation of the Scholarly Journal

10.2.2 A new technology stasis?

Punctuated equilibrium argues for relatively rapid large scale shifts after longs periods of stasis. This has certainly been true in the domain of scholarly publishing. Applying this insight to the new electronic publishing technologies suggests that after the current phase of rapid development in computing and communications hardware and software, there will be a return to another period of relative stasis. Signs that this might be the case are:

A convergence on the de-facto standards of HTML for onscreen display of articles and PDF for printable versions
A noticeable slowing in the release timetables of new versions of critical software such as browsers
The approaching quantum-mechanical barriers to the continual operation of Moore's Law to provide ever cheaper and faster chip technology
The lack of anything dramatically different (in the way the arrival of Web was, for example) on the technology horizon

These all argue for incremental rather than dramatic change over the next 20 years (which was the case also for the first 50 years of printing in Europe).

Last modified: Monday, 11-Dec-2017 14:41:35 AEDT